Pollster scorecard
How accurate is each pollster?
On polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, the top-rated U.S. pollster is Data Orbital, with an adjusted error of 4.1 points across 16 polls; the typical poll missed by 5.8 points. We recompute simple, explainable accuracy statistics for every pollster with at least ten polls in the final three weeks of a race since 2016, using FiveThirtyEight's open archive of 11,000+ polls matched to results. The archive ends with the 2022 cycle, so 2024 polls are not yet scored. FiveThirtyEight's final letter grade (2023) is shown alongside for reference; it is no longer updated since the site closed in 2025.
How to read this table
- Avg error: mean absolute difference, in points, between the poll's margin and the actual margin. Lower is better. Across every rated poll since 2016, a final-three-weeks poll missed by 5.8 points on average.
- Adjusted error: the same figure shrunk toward the field average (k = 15 polls), so pollsters with few polls aren't ranked on luck. Rows are sorted by this column.
- Bias: average signed error. D+ means the pollster's polls were, on average, more favourable to Democrats than the result; R+ more favourable to Republicans.
- Right call: share of polls whose leader won.
- Click a pollster for its record by election year and race type, and every poll it has released this cycle.
| # | Pollster | Method | Polls | Cycles | Avg error | Adjusted | Bias | Right call | 538 grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data Orbital | Live Phone | 16 | 2016–2022 | 2.6 | 4.14 | D+0.5 | 84% | A/B |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | Live Phone | 95 | 2016–2022 | 4.0 | 4.28 | D+1.2 | 75% | A+ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | Online | 45 | 2018–2020 | 3.8 | 4.31 | D+0.7 | 74% | B |
| 4 | Cygnal | IVR/Online | 38 | 2016–2022 | 3.7 | 4.31 | D+2.3 | 93% | A |
| 5 | Echelon Insights | Online | 10 | 2020–2022 | 2.2 | 4.37 | R+0.7 | 70% | A/B |
| 6 | Research Co. | Online | 58 | 2018–2022 | 4.0 | 4.40 | D+1.0 | 90% | B- |
| 7 | Landmark Communications | IVR/Live Phone | 22 | 2016–2022 | 3.5 | 4.42 | D+1.2 | 59% | A |
| 8 | ABC News/The Washington Post | Live Phone | 16 | 2016–2022 | 3.2 | 4.49 | D+2.8 | 78% | A |
| 9 | Leger | Online | 12 | 2016–2020 | 2.9 | 4.50 | D+0.7 | 96% | B/C |
| 10 | St. Pete Polls | IVR | 19 | 2016–2022 | 3.8 | 4.67 | D+2.6 | 58% | B+ |
| 11 | Morning Consult | Online | 72 | 2016–2022 | 4.6 | 4.77 | D+4.0 | 73% | B- |
| 12 | Lucid | Online | 25 | 2016–2018 | 4.2 | 4.77 | D+3.8 | 88% | B |
| 13 | Trafalgar Group | IVR | 113 | 2016–2022 | 4.7 | 4.85 | R+2.9 | 65% | B |
| 14 | Research & Polling Inc. | Live Phone | 14 | 2016–2022 | 3.8 | 4.86 | R+0.5 | 93% | A+ |
| 15 | Rasmussen Reports | IVR/Online | 88 | 2016–2022 | 4.8 | 4.91 | D+2.1 | 68% | B |
| 16 | InsiderAdvantage | IVR/Online | 70 | 2016–2022 | 4.8 | 4.94 | R+1.1 | 66% | B |
| 17 | AtlasIntel | Online | 24 | 2020–2022 | 4.4 | 4.94 | D+0.6 | 73% | A |
| 18 | Emerson College | IVR/Online | 249 | 2016–2022 | 4.9 | 4.96 | D+0.6 | 78% | A- |
| 19 | Ipsos | Online | 56 | 2016–2022 | 4.7 | 4.96 | D+3.2 | 60% | B- |
| 20 | Wick | IVR/Online | 16 | 2017–2022 | 4.2 | 4.96 | R+2.8 | 62% | B/C |
| 21 | Marquette University Law School | Live Phone | 10 | 2016–2022 | 3.8 | 4.99 | D+1.5 | 70% | A/B |
| 22 | KAConsulting | Live Phone | 11 | 2021–2022 | 3.9 | 5.00 | R+3.9 | 91% | A/B |
| 23 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Live Phone | 45 | 2016–2022 | 4.7 | 5.01 | D+1.8 | 82% | A |
| 24 | OH Predictive Insights | Live Phone | 12 | 2016–2022 | 4.0 | 5.02 | R+1.5 | 67% | B/C |
| 25 | SurveyUSA | IVR/Online | 73 | 2016–2022 | 4.9 | 5.09 | D+0.7 | 84% | A+ |
| 26 | Suffolk University | Live Phone | 34 | 2016–2022 | 4.8 | 5.12 | D+1.0 | 78% | A- |
| 27 | Selzer & Co. | Live Phone | 15 | 2016–2022 | 4.5 | 5.14 | D+1.0 | 87% | A+ |
| 28 | Quinnipiac University | Live Phone | 69 | 2016–2022 | 5.1 | 5.21 | D+4.4 | 67% | A- |
| 29 | Remington Research Group | IVR/Live Phone | 52 | 2016–2022 | 5.0 | 5.22 | D+2.0 | 73% | B |
| 30 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | Live Phone | 19 | 2016–2022 | 4.8 | 5.22 | D+2.1 | 55% | B+ |
| 31 | Muhlenberg College | Live Phone | 12 | 2016–2022 | 4.5 | 5.22 | D+1.8 | 75% | A- |
| 32 | Civiqs | Online | 42 | 2020–2022 | 5.1 | 5.27 | D+4.5 | 81% | B |
| 33 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | Live Phone | 11 | 2016–2022 | 4.6 | 5.28 | D+4.7 | 64% | A/B |
| 34 | RRH Elections | IVR/Text | 10 | 2016–2022 | 4.7 | 5.35 | R+1.5 | 90% | A/B |
| 35 | Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies | IVR/Online | 120 | 2016–2020 | 5.3 | 5.36 | D+2.9 | 70% | B |
| 36 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | Live Phone | 11 | 2016–2021 | 4.8 | 5.38 | D+1.8 | 91% | A/B |
| 37 | co/efficient | IVR/Text | 20 | 2019–2022 | 5.1 | 5.40 | R+4.5 | 68% | B+ |
| 38 | Siena College | Live Phone | 21 | 2016–2022 | 5.2 | 5.42 | ±0.0 | 88% | A |
| 39 | YouGov | Online | 151 | 2016–2022 | 5.5 | 5.52 | D+3.3 | 79% | B+ |
| 40 | Marist College | Live Phone | 85 | 2016–2022 | 5.6 | 5.61 | D+2.8 | 76% | A |
| 41 | University of Southern California Center for Economic and Social Research | Online | 10 | 2016–2020 | 5.6 | 5.71 | D+3.1 | 80% | B/C |
| 42 | GBAO | Live Phone | 10 | 2016–2020 | 5.6 | 5.72 | D+4.9 | 75% | B/C |
| 43 | Dixie Strategies | IVR/Live Phone | 10 | 2016–2018 | 5.8 | 5.81 | R+4.0 | 100% | B/C |
| 44 | EPIC-MRA | Live Phone | 12 | 2016–2022 | 5.9 | 5.87 | D+2.9 | 75% | B+ |
| 45 | Targoz Market Research | Online | 24 | 2018–2022 | 5.9 | 5.88 | D+2.2 | 75% | C |
| 46 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | Online | 24 | 2016–2022 | 6.0 | 5.90 | D+2.5 | 81% | A- |
| 47 | Data for Progress | Online | 106 | 2019–2022 | 5.9 | 5.92 | D+1.9 | 78% | B |
| 48 | RMG Research | IVR/Text | 25 | 2020 | 6.0 | 5.93 | D+6.0 | 76% | B- |
| 49 | MassINC Polling Group | Live Phone | 13 | 2016–2020 | 6.2 | 5.98 | R+3.4 | 77% | A/B |
| 50 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | Live Phone | 23 | 2016–2020 | 6.4 | 6.18 | D+4.6 | 93% | A- |
| 51 | SSRS | Live Phone | 27 | 2018–2022 | 6.4 | 6.19 | D+5.3 | 70% | C+ |
| 52 | Public Opinion Strategies | Live Phone | 10 | 2016–2022 | 6.8 | 6.21 | D+4.2 | 65% | B+ |
| 53 | Change Research | Online | 109 | 2017–2020 | 6.4 | 6.30 | D+3.4 | 75% | B- |
| 54 | Citizen Data | IVR/Online | 12 | 2020 | 7.0 | 6.36 | D+7.0 | 58% | B/C |
| 55 | Monmouth University | Live Phone | 75 | 2016–2021 | 6.6 | 6.50 | D+4.9 | 75% | A |
| 56 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | IVR/Online | 14 | 2020–2022 | 7.3 | 6.52 | D+3.5 | 68% | B/C |
| 57 | SurveyMonkey | Online | 268 | 2016–2020 | 6.6 | 6.60 | D+5.2 | 87% | C |
| 58 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | Live Phone | 39 | 2016–2022 | 7.0 | 6.69 | D+4.8 | 83% | B- |
| 59 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | IVR | 12 | 2018–2022 | 8.2 | 6.88 | D+4.5 | 75% | C/D |
| 60 | Public Policy Polling | IVR/Online | 106 | 2016–2022 | 7.1 | 6.93 | D+5.5 | 71% | A- |
| 61 | Google Consumer Surveys | Online | 12 | 2016 | 8.5 | 6.99 | D+1.8 | 100% | B/C |
| 62 | Franklin & Marshall College | Live Phone/Online | 10 | 2016–2022 | 8.8 | 7.02 | D+6.3 | 80% | B/C |
| 63 | Swayable | Online | 89 | 2020 | 7.2 | 7.04 | D+5.1 | 89% | C |
| 64 | Big Village | Live Phone | 23 | 2016–2022 | 7.9 | 7.05 | D+2.8 | 48% | B- |
| 65 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | Live Phone | 12 | 2016 | 8.9 | 7.20 | D+2.8 | 67% | B/C |
| 66 | Overtime Politics | Live Phone | 12 | 2016 | 9.8 | 7.58 | n/a | 67% | F |
| 67 | SoonerPoll.com | IVR/Online | 12 | 2016–2022 | 10.7 | 7.99 | D+6.3 | 58% | C |
| 68 | Mitchell Research & Communications | IVR | 36 | 2016–2022 | 9.8 | 8.61 | D+2.8 | 58% | C- |
| 69 | American Research Group | Live Phone | 43 | 2016–2020 | 9.7 | 8.66 | D+4.9 | 77% | C+ |
Source data: FiveThirtyEight raw-polls and pollster-ratings (2023 release), CC BY 4.0. Polls from 1998–2015 are excluded from the statistics above because methodology has changed too much to be comparable. Download this table (CSV).
Active pollsters without a rating yet
Firms with at least five polls in our 2025–26 data but fewer than ten rated final-three-weeks polls in the archive: McLaughlin & Associates (56) · HarrisX (32) · Verasight (32) · Quantus Insights (32) · Focaldata (29) · Big Data Poll (27) · Clarity Campaign Labs (17) · Hart Research Associates (14) · J.L. Partners (13) · TIPP Insights (12) · ActiVote (10) · Overton Insights (10) · John Zogby Strategies (9) · Zogby Analytics (8) · Yale Youth Poll (7) · The Bullfinch Group (5) · Fabrizio Ward (5) · SoCal Strategies (5).
2026 midterm scorecard
The 2026 midterms were held on November 3, 2026. Once a national House popular vote count is published we score every final-three-weeks generic-ballot poll against it with the same method, from open data and open code, first with the unofficial count (labelled preliminary) and again after certification. The table appears here automatically.