Prediction markets
2028 election odds: markets vs. polls
Prices on Polymarket are the probability traders assign to each outcome. Polls measure what respondents say today. Putting both on one page shows where they disagree, which is usually where the interesting story is.
2028 Presidential Election Winner
Polymarket snapshot of
| Outcome | Polymarket |
|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 20.4% |
| JD Vance | 19.1% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12.2% |
| Marco Rubio | 9.2% |
| Gavin Newsom | 7.2% |
| Ron DeSantis | 5.1% |
| Kamala Harris | 3.6% |
| Josh Shapiro | 2.6% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.5% |
| James Talarico | 1.8% |
| Donald Trump | 1.4% |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.2% |
| Andy Beshear | 1.2% |
| Wes Moore | 1.1% |
| Thomas Massie | 1.1% |
| Mark Kelly | 0.9% |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.9% |
| Ro Khanna | 0.8% |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 0.8% |
2028 Democratic Nominee
Polymarket snapshot of
| Outcome | Polymarket |
|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 26.9% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 17.0% |
| Gavin Newsom | 11.9% |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.1% |
| Kamala Harris | 4.9% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 4.7% |
| Andy Beshear | 3.6% |
| James Talarico | 2.8% |
| Raphael Warnock | 2.1% |
| Wes Moore | 2.1% |
| Mark Kelly | 1.9% |
| Ro Khanna | 1.6% |
| JB Pritzker | 1.4% |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.2% |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.9% |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 0.9% |
| Roy Cooper | 0.7% |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.7% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.7% |
| Michelle Obama | 0.6% |
2028 Republican Nominee
Polymarket snapshot of · Not shown, because the price hasn't moved in 4 snapshots (a closed or untraded contract): Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Outcome | Polymarket |
|---|---|
| JD Vance | 34.8% |
| Marco Rubio | 21.3% |
| Ron DeSantis | 11.2% |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.4% |
| Ted Cruz | 2.5% |
| Thomas Massie | 2.1% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.7% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 1.6% |
| Joe Kent | 1.6% |
| Ivanka Trump | 1.5% |
| Brian Kemp | 1.3% |
| Donald Trump | 1.2% |
| Byron Donalds | 0.9% |
| John McEntee | 0.8% |
| Nikki Haley | 0.7% |
Reading the gap
A nomination market price is not the same quantity as a primary poll share. A candidate polling at 20% in a crowded field can be a 50% favourite if traders expect the field to consolidate around them. Markets also price events that polls can't see: whether a candidate runs at all, health, scandals, endorsements. Treat large gaps as a prompt to ask why, not as proof that one side is wrong.
Prices are mid-market or last-trade values at the time of our snapshot and can move within minutes. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Prices are read from Polymarket's public API; contracts that are closed, inactive or have traded less than $10,000 are skipped. Kalshi lists similar markets; we link to it rather than republish its prices. Historical Polymarket snapshots are in the open dataset; the prices remain subject to Polymarket's terms.