Updated November 5, 2026 · 733 days to the 2028 election
2026 midterms: the final polls, then the results
The final generic ballot average had Democrats +8.0 (119 polls). Official results by state and the 2028 averages are below, or ask a question.
2026 midterms · 2 days ago
Final generic ballot average: Democrats +8.0
How close did the polls get? Once a national House count is published, every final-weeks poll is scored against it on the 2026 pollster scorecard.
Results and the final polls →Generic ballot polls2026 pollster scorecard
Where 2028 starts: the 2024 map
Results by state →All 50 states and DC
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- District of Columbia
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
Trump approval
Disapprove +22.3
Trump Approval Rating Tracker →Vance vs. Newsom
Newsom +3.4
Vance vs. Newsom →Dem primary
GOP primary
Generic ballot
Democrats +8.0
2026 Generic Congressional Ballot →Free. Open data. Every number linked to the pollster that published it.
Latest polls
All data →- Democrats 53% · Republicans 47%
- Democrats 52% · Republicans 44%
- Approve 43% · Disapprove 55%
- Approve 36% · Disapprove 63%
- Democrats 52% · Republicans 45%
- Approve 35% · Disapprove 61%
- Democrats 53.5% · Republicans 46.5%
- Democrats 51% · Republicans 39%
- Approve 40% · Disapprove 58%
- Approve 41% · Disapprove 51%
- Approve 40% · Disapprove 60%
- Democrats 52% · Republicans 45%
Most accurate pollsters
Full scorecard →Ranked by adjusted error: the mean error on the final margin, 2016–2022, shrunk toward the field average (5.8) so a hot streak over ten polls doesn't outrank 300 polls of steady work.
| Pollster | Polls | Avg error | Adjusted | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Orbital | 16 | 2.6 | 4.1 | D+0.5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 95 | 4.0 | 4.3 | D+1.2 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 45 | 3.8 | 4.3 | D+0.7 |
| Cygnal | 38 | 3.7 | 4.3 | D+2.3 |
| Echelon Insights | 10 | 2.2 | 4.4 | R+0.7 |
| Research Co. | 58 | 4.0 | 4.4 | D+1.0 |
| Landmark Communications | 22 | 3.5 | 4.4 | D+1.2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 16 | 3.2 | 4.5 | D+2.8 |
Markets
Polls vs. markets →2028 Presidential Election Winner · Polymarket, Nov 5, 2026
| Outcome | Polymarket |
|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 20% |
| JD Vance | 19% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12% |
| Marco Rubio | 9% |
| Gavin Newsom | 7% |
What this is
ElectionsUSA tracks public opinion ahead of the November 7, 2028 United States presidential election. It averages polls with a published, reproducible method; it keeps score of how close each pollster's final polls came to actual results; and it puts prediction-market prices next to the polls so readers can see when traders and survey respondents disagree.
The site is independent, carries no campaign, party or government affiliation, and runs without advertising or sponsorship. The complete dataset is downloadable and every figure links back to the pollster that published it.