Pollster scorecard · ranked 21 of 69
How accurate is Marquette University Law School?
Marquette University Law School's 10 polls in the final three weeks of 2016–2022 races missed the final margin by 3.8 points on average, ranking 21st of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 1.5 points toward Democrats, and 70% had the eventual winner ahead.
- Average error
- 3.8
- points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
- Adjusted error
- 4.99
- 21st of 69 on the scorecard
- Partisan bias
- D+1.5
- average signed miss
- Right call
- 70%
- of polls had the winner ahead
- Rated polls
- 10
- final three weeks, 2016–2022
- 538 grade
- A/B
- final (2023)
Main survey method in the rated polls: Live Phone.
By election year
| Year | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4 | 6.1 | D+5.6 | 50% |
| 2018 | 2 | 0.6 | R+0.5 | 75% |
| 2020 | 2 | 3.8 | D+4.4 | 100% |
| 2022 | 2 | 2.2 | R+2.2 | 75% |
By race
| Race | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Presidential primary | 3 | 5.5 | n/a | 100% |
| Senate | 3 | 1.8 | D+1.2 | 67% |
| Governor | 2 | 2.2 | R+2.2 | 50% |
| President | 2 | 5.6 | D+5.6 | 50% |
Marquette University Law School polls on ElectionsUSA (8)
CSV →| Race | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic ballot ↗ | Sep 2–9, 2026 | 581 LV | Democrats 54% · Republicans 41% | Democrats +13.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jul 22–29, 2026 | 572 LV | Democrats 51% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +6.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | May 20–26, 2026 | 576 LV | Democrats 49% · Republicans 48% | Democrats +1.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Apr 8–16, 2026 | 576 LV | Democrats 53% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +10.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jan 21–28, 2026 | 577 LV | Democrats 52% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +7.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Nov 5–12, 2025 | 903 RV | Democrats 49% · Republicans 44% | Democrats +5.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Mar 17–27, 2025 | 1,021 A | Approve 46% · Disapprove 54% | Disapprove +8.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Jan 27 – Feb 5, 2025 | 1,063 A | Approve 48% · Disapprove 52% | Disapprove +4.0 |
Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.
How these numbers work
Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.
Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.
Questions about Marquette University Law School
Is Marquette University Law School accurate?
In the final three weeks of 2016–2022 races, Marquette University Law School's 10 rated polls missed the final margin by 3.8 points on average, better than the 5.8-point average of all rated pollsters, and 70% had the winner ahead. It ranks 21st of 69 on the ElectionsUSA scorecard.
Does Marquette University Law School lean Democratic or Republican?
Its polls leaned 1.5 points toward Democrats on average, measured against the final results.