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2028 Republican Primary Polls
JD Vance leads the 2028 Republican primary with 39.8% in the ElectionsUSA average of 69 national polls, ahead of Marco Rubio (19.7%) and Donald Trump Jr. (11.7%), as of November 5, 2026.
Weighted average of 69 polls (of 111 on record), as of November 5, 2026. Half-life 60 days. Method · JSON
Trend
Dots are polls; the line is the average as computed on each date- Vance 39.8%
- Rubio 19.7%
- Trump Jr. 11.7%
- Other/Undecided 11.1%
- DeSantis 8.2%
Questions about this average
Who is leading the 2028 Republican primary?
JD Vance leads the 2028 Republican primary with 39.8% in the ElectionsUSA average of 69 national polls, ahead of Marco Rubio (19.7%) and Donald Trump Jr. (11.7%), as of November 5, 2026.
How is this average calculated?
Every poll is weighted by how recent it is (a 60-day half-life), its sample size, the pollster's track record and how often the firm publishes, so a daily tracker can't dominate. The method is fully described on the methodology page and can be reproduced from the open data. Read the method.
Which polls are included?
Every public national poll we can source, 111 on record for this page and 69 carrying weight today. Each row in the table links to the pollster's own release; adult, registered-voter and likely-voter polls all count, but a poll released for several populations counts once (likely voters first).
How often is it updated?
Automatically, every six hours: new polls are collected, checked and added, and the average and chart are recomputed.
Can I use this data?
Yes. Every poll is free to download as CSV, and every average as JSON, under CC BY 4.0. Please credit ElectionsUSA with a link. Download the data.
Latest 50 polls (of 111)
CSV →| Pollster | Dates | Sample | 538 grade | Vance | Rubio | DeSantis | Trump Jr. | Haley | Kennedy Jr. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Campaign Labs ↗ | Oct 15–21, 2026 | 413 LV | B/C | 40% | 17% | 9% | 17% | — | 5% | 6.1% |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | Oct 15–19, 2026 | 417 LV | A/B | 38% | 20% | 12% | 7% | — | 2% | 3.9% |
| Noble Predictive Insights / The Center Square ↗ | Oct 5–7, 2026 | 1,137 RV | B/C | 44% | 18% | 8% | — | 3% | — | 8.6% |
| Focaldata / Financial Times ↗ | Oct 2–5, 2026 | 803 LV | — | 38% | 24% | 9% | 7% | — | 4% | 4.1% |
| Harvard Harris ↗ | Sep 26–28, 2026 | RV | — | 39% | 17% | — | 24% | 5% | 9% | 3.3% |
| McLaughlin & Associates ↗ | Sep 16–22, 2026 | 430 LV | C/D | 35% | 15% | 6% | 14% | 3% | — | 1.9% |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | Sep 17–21, 2026 | 424 LV | A/B | 38% | 20% | 8% | 6% | — | 3% | 2.9% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs ↗ | Sep 11–16, 2026 | 406 LV | B/C | 35% | 16% | 12% | 12% | — | 5% | 4.0% |
| Big Data Poll ↗ | Sep 13–15, 2026 | 1,110 LV | F | 38% | 16% | 8% | — | 6% | 6% | 0.7% |
| Focaldata ↗ | Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2026 | 662 LV | — | 43% | 21% | 9% | 7% | — | 4% | 2.6% |
| Bowling Green State University / YouGov ↗ | Aug 25 – Sep 1, 2026 | 499 LV | — | 44% | 21% | 7% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 4.9% |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | Aug 26–28, 2026 | 473 LV | — | 41% | 29% | 6% | 9% | — | — | 3.2% |
| McLaughlin & Associates ↗ | Aug 18–24, 2026 | 433 LV | C/D | 32% | 12% | 6% | 19% | 5% | — | 1.4% |
| Focal Data ↗ | Aug 7–11, 2026 | 874 A | — | 42% | 18% | 8% | 10% | — | 6% | 2.3% |
| Emerson College ↗ | Jul 19–20, 2026 | — | A- | 39% | 38% | 5% | 5% | — | — | 2.8% |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | Jul 9–13, 2026 | 1,004 LV | A/B | 38% | 15% | 9% | 8% | — | 3% | 2.0% |
| Harvard Harris ↗ | Jul 11–12, 2026 | 1,776 RV | — | 42% | 22% | — | 18% | 6% | 6% | 2.0% |
| YouGov ↗ | Jul 8–10, 2026 | 369 A | B+ | 32% | 19% | 4% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 2.2% |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | Jul 3–7, 2026 | 480 LV | — | 42% | 26% | 9% | — | 3% | — | 1.8% |
| Zogby Analytics ↗ | Jul 1–4, 2026 | 375 LV | B- | 51% | 13% | 13% | — | — | — | 2.5% |
| Focal Data ↗ | Jun 26–30, 2026 | 727 LV | — | 40% | 18% | 7% | 9% | — | 5% | 1.3% |
| Big Data Poll ↗ | Jun 26–28, 2026 | 1,166 LV | F | 37% | 18% | 8% | — | 4% | 7% | 0.3% |
| JL Partners / Daily Mail ↗ | Jun 24–26, 2026 | 517 LV | B/C | 51% | 15% | 9% | — | 2% | — | 1.8% |
| McLaughlin & Associates ↗ | Jun 17–23, 2026 | 440 RV | C/D | 35% | 15% | 5% | 14% | 3% | — | 0.7% |
| Big Data Poll ↗ⓘ | Jun 10–15, 2026 | — | F | 35.4% | 16.5% | 7.1% | — | — | 6.5% | 0.2% |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | Jun 11–14, 2026 | 418 LV | A/B | 42% | 15% | 6% | 7% | — | 3% | 0.9% |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | Jun 5–9, 2026 | 1,121 LV | A/B | 38% | 19% | 7% | 13% | — | 3% | 1.4% |
| Noble Predictive Insight ↗ | Jun 1–4, 2026 | 1,046 RV | B/C | 36% | 17% | 7% | — | 3% | — | 1.9% |
| Focal Data ↗ | May 29 – Jun 1, 2026 | 667 A | — | 37% | 18% | 9% | 10% | — | 5% | 0.9% |
| Harvard Harris ↗ | May 29–31, 2026 | 1,725 RV | — | 45% | 21% | — | 21% | — | — | 1.2% |
| I&I / TIPP ↗ | May 26–28, 2026 | 561 RV | A- | 29% | 12% | 6% | 19% | 2% | 4% | 2.6% |
| Big Data Poll ↗ | May 24–27, 2026 | 1,148 LV | F | 37.4% | 16.1% | 7.2% | — | 3.8% | 5.9% | 0.2% |
| Emerson College ↗ | May 24–25, 2026 | 432 LV | A- | 35.5% | 34.6% | 5.4% | — | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Overton Insights ↗ | May 16–20, 2026 | 509 | — | 39% | 32% | 9% | — | 4% | — | 1.5% |
| Daily Mail / JL Partners ↗ | May 15–19, 2026 | 496 LV | B/C | 47% | 18% | 9% | — | 3% | — | 1.1% |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | May 14–18, 2026 | 418 LV | A/B | 36% | 12% | 12% | 6% | — | 2% | 0.7% |
| McLaughlin & Associates ↗ | May 12–18, 2026 | 431 LV | C/D | 32% | 15% | 6% | 13% | 5% | — | 0.4% |
| Lord Ashcroft Polls ↗ | Apr 28 – May 17, 2026 | 3,804 A | — | 32% | 13% | 7% | 22% | — | 5% | 2.3% |
| AtlasIntel ↗ | May 4–7, 2026 | 2,069 A | A | 29.6% | 45.4% | 11.2% | 0.4% | — | — | 3.3% |
| Verasight ↗ | Apr 21–23, 2026 | 802 A | — | 36.7% | 15.8% | 7.1% | 13.3% | 3.8% | — | 1.4% |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | Apr 17–20, 2026 | 409 RV | A/B | 42% | 14% | 8% | 10% | — | 2% | 0.5% |
| McLaughlin & Associates ↗ | Apr 8–15, 2026 | 457 RV | C/D | 35% | 15% | 7% | 13% | — | — | 0.3% |
| Rasmussen Reports ↗ | Apr 9–13, 2026 | 385 LV | B | 47% | 20% | 7% | — | — | — | 1.1% |
| YouGov ↗ | Apr 8–13, 2026 | 968 RV | B+ | 36% | 15% | 6% | 13% | — | — | 1.3% |
| Harvard Harris ↗ | Mar 25–26, 2026 | — | — | 42% | 17% | 10% | 20% | — | — | 0.4% |
| Harvard Harris ↗ | Feb 25–26, 2026 | 1,999 RV | — | 43% | 14% | 8% | 27% | — | — | 0.4% |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | Feb 19–23, 2026 | 429 LV | A/B | 37% | 11% | 8% | 14% | 3% | 3% | 0.3% |
| Emerson College ↗ | Feb 21–22, 2026 | 454 LV | A- | 52% | 20% | 6% | — | 3% | 4% | 0.4% |
| YouGov / BGSU ↗ | Feb 13–18, 2026 | 463 RV | B+ | 51% | 15% | 9% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 0.5% |
| Emerson College ↗ⓘ | Feb 10–12, 2026 | LV | A- | 52% | 20% | — | — | — | — | 0.5% |
The page shows the latest 50. All 111 polls, with weights, are in the JSON; every poll and population is in polls.csv.
Click a pollster for its accuracy record and every poll it has released; ↗ opens the poll's source. Rows marked ⓘ carry a note (for example, fieldwork dates inferred from press coverage). Weight is the poll's share of the current average after recency, sample-size, pollster-quality and frequency adjustments.
About this average
Primary polls are volatile: the field is not set, many respondents name whoever is in the news, and "undecided" is often the largest answer. Candidates are shown only when at least one poll in the window tested them, so a candidate's average can move simply because different pollsters include different names. Use the trend chart, not any single poll.
Something wrong? Every row links to its source. Report an error through the corrections page and it will be fixed in the data, not just on the page.