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2028 Presidential Election Polls: Vance vs. Newsom
Gavin Newsom leads JD Vance 43.6% to 40.2% in a hypothetical 2028 matchup, according to the ElectionsUSA average of 7 polls, as of November 5, 2026.
Weighted average of 7 polls (of 20 on record), as of November 5, 2026. Half-life 45 days. Method · JSON
Trend
Dots are polls; the line is the average as computed on each date- Newsom 43.6%
- Vance 40.2%
Questions about this average
Who leads the Vance vs. Newsom 2028 polls?
Gavin Newsom leads JD Vance 43.6% to 40.2% in a hypothetical 2028 matchup, according to the ElectionsUSA average of 7 polls, as of November 5, 2026.
How is this average calculated?
Every poll is weighted by how recent it is (a 45-day half-life), its sample size, the pollster's track record and how often the firm publishes, so a daily tracker can't dominate. The method is fully described on the methodology page and can be reproduced from the open data. Read the method.
Which polls are included?
Every public national poll we can source, 20 on record for this page and 7 carrying weight today. Each row in the table links to the pollster's own release; adult, registered-voter and likely-voter polls all count, but a poll released for several populations counts once (likely voters first).
How often is it updated?
Automatically, every six hours: new polls are collected, checked and added, and the average and chart are recomputed.
Can I use this data?
Yes. Every poll is free to download as CSV, and every average as JSON, under CC BY 4.0. Please credit ElectionsUSA with a link. Download the data.
All polls (20)
CSV →| Pollster | Dates | Sample | 538 grade | Vance | Newsom | Margin | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bulwark / Pablo Torre Finds Out/YouGov ↗ | Oct 10–14, 2026 | 1,417 A | B+ | 36% | 41% | Newsom +5.0 | 37.6% |
| UMass Lowell / YouGov ↗ | Oct 2–4, 2026 | 1,000 LV | A- | 42% | 46% | Newsom +4.0 | 31.2% |
| Emerson College ↗ | Aug 16–17, 2026 | 1,000 LV | A- | 44% | 49% | Newsom +5.0 | 14.9% |
| Zogby Analytics ↗ | Jul 1–4, 2026 | 1,003 LV | B- | 45% | 38% | Vance +7.0 | 5.9% |
| The Tarrance Group ↗ | Jun 20–24, 2026 | 550 LV | B+ | 47% | 43% | Vance +4.0 | 4.3% |
| Overton Insights ↗ | May 16–20, 2026 | 1,377 | — | 39% | 44% | Newsom +5.0 | 2.9% |
| UMass Lowell ↗ | Mar 26–30, 2026 | 1,000 RV | A- | 36% | 33% | Vance +3.0 | 1.7% |
| Zogby Analytics ↗ | Jan 1–7, 2026 | 891 LV | B- | 44.6% | 41% | Vance +3.6 | 0.4% |
| The Argument / Verasight ↗ | Nov 10–17, 2025 | 1,508 RV | — | 46.4% | 53.6% | Newsom +7.2 | 0.2% |
| Morning Consult ↗ | Nov 14–16, 2025 | 2,201 RV | B- | 42% | 41% | Vance +1.0 | 0.2% |
| Overton Insights ↗ | Oct 27–29, 2025 | 1,200 RV | — | 43% | 46% | Newsom +3.0 | 0.1% |
| YouGov ↗ | Oct 16–20, 2025 | 1,000 A | B+ | 32% | 36% | Newsom +4.0 | 0.1% |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | Oct 16–20, 2025 | 1,010 LV | A/B | 46% | 47% | Newsom +1.0 | 0.1% |
| Emerson College ↗ | Oct 13–14, 2025 | 1,000 RV | A- | 45.5% | 44.9% | Vance +0.6 | 0.1% |
| YouGov / Yahoo ↗ | Aug 29 – Sep 2, 2025 | 1,690 A | B+ | 41% | 49% | Newsom +8.0 | 0.1% |
| Leger360 ↗ | Aug 29–31, 2025 | 849 A | B/C | 46% | 47% | Newsom +1.0 | <0.1% |
| Emerson College ↗ | Aug 25–26, 2025 | 1,000 RV | A- | 44.4% | 43.5% | Vance +0.9 | 0.1% |
| On Point / SoCal Strategies ↗ | Aug 18, 2025 | 700 A | — | 37% | 39% | Newsom +2.0 | <0.1% |
| Emerson College ↗ | Jul 21–22, 2025 | 1,400 RV | A- | 45.3% | 42.1% | Vance +3.2 | <0.1% |
| On Point / SoCal Strategies ↗ | Dec 23, 2024 | 656 A | — | 37% | 34% | Vance +3.0 | <0.1% |
Click a pollster for its accuracy record and every poll it has released; ↗ opens the poll's source. Rows marked ⓘ carry a note (for example, fieldwork dates inferred from press coverage). Weight is the poll's share of the current average after recency, sample-size, pollster-quality and frequency adjustments.
About this average
National polls don't elect presidents; states do. Make your own 2028 electoral map, starting from the 2024 result.
Hypothetical general-election polls this far from Election Day measure name recognition and partisan loyalty more than a decided choice, which is why this page uses a long 45-day half-life and why early leads of a few points should be read as a tie. The average becomes much more informative once both parties have nominees, in summer 2028.
Something wrong? Every row links to its source. Report an error through the corrections page and it will be fixed in the data, not just on the page.