{
 "race_id": "pres-2028-vance-newsom",
 "title": "2028 Presidential Election Polls: Vance vs. Newsom",
 "as_of": "2026-11-05",
 "method": "https://electionsusa.org/methodology/",
 "average": {
  "JD Vance": 40.2,
  "Gavin Newsom": 43.6
 },
 "margin": -3.4,
 "n_polls_weighted": 7,
 "n_polls_total": 20,
 "trend": {
  "JD Vance": [
   [
    "2025-10-01",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-04",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-07",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-10",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-13",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-16",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-19",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-22",
    42.1
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-25",
    42.1
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-28",
    42.1
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-31",
    42.3
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-03",
    42.3
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-06",
    42.3
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-09",
    42.3
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-12",
    42.3
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-15",
    42.3
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-18",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-21",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-24",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-27",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-30",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-03",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-06",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-09",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-12",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-15",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-18",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-21",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-24",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-27",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-30",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-02",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-05",
    42.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-08",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-11",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-14",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-17",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-20",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-23",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-26",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-29",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-01",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-04",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-07",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-10",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-13",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-16",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-19",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-22",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-25",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-28",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-03",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-06",
    43.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-09",
    43.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-12",
    43.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-15",
    43.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-18",
    43.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-21",
    43.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-24",
    43.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-27",
    43.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-30",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-02",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-05",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-08",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-11",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-14",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-17",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-20",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-23",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-26",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-29",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-02",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-05",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-08",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-11",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-14",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-17",
    39.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-20",
    39.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-23",
    39.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-26",
    39.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-29",
    39.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-01",
    39.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-04",
    39.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-07",
    39.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-10",
    39.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-13",
    39.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-16",
    39.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-19",
    39.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-22",
    39.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-25",
    42.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-28",
    42.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-01",
    42.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-04",
    43.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-07",
    43.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-10",
    43.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-13",
    43.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-16",
    43.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-19",
    43.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-22",
    43.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-25",
    43.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-28",
    43.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-31",
    43.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-03",
    43.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-06",
    43.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-09",
    43.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-12",
    43.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-15",
    43.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-18",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-21",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-24",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-27",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-30",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-02",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-05",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-08",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-11",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-14",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-17",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-20",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-23",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-26",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-29",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-02",
    43.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-05",
    43.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-08",
    43.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-11",
    42.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-14",
    40.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-17",
    40.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-20",
    40.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-23",
    40.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-26",
    40.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-29",
    40.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-11-01",
    40.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-11-04",
    40.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-11-05",
    40.2
   ]
  ],
  "Gavin Newsom": [
   [
    "2025-10-01",
    45.1
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-04",
    45.1
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-07",
    45.1
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-10",
    45.1
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-13",
    45.1
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-16",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-19",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-22",
    43.8
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-25",
    43.8
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-28",
    43.8
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-31",
    44.3
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-03",
    44.3
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-06",
    44.3
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-09",
    44.3
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-12",
    44.3
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-15",
    44.3
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-18",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-21",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-24",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-27",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-30",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-03",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-06",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-09",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-12",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-15",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-18",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-21",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-24",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-27",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-30",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-02",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-05",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-08",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-11",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-14",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-17",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-20",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-23",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-26",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-29",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-01",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-04",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-07",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-10",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-13",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-16",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-19",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-22",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-25",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-28",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-03",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-06",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-09",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-12",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-15",
    44.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-18",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-21",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-24",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-27",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-30",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-02",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-05",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-08",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-11",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-14",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-17",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-20",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-23",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-26",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-29",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-02",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-05",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-08",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-11",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-14",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-17",
    38.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-20",
    40.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-23",
    40.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-26",
    40.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-29",
    40.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-01",
    40.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-04",
    40.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-07",
    40.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-10",
    40.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-13",
    40.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-16",
    40.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-19",
    40.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-22",
    40.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-25",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-28",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-01",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-04",
    40.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-07",
    40.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-10",
    40.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-13",
    40.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-16",
    40.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-19",
    40.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-22",
    40.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-25",
    40.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-28",
    40.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-31",
    40.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-03",
    40.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-06",
    40.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-09",
    40.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-12",
    40.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-15",
    40.4
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-18",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-21",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-24",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-27",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-30",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-02",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-05",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-08",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-11",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-14",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-17",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-20",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-23",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-26",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-29",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-02",
    44.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-05",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-08",
    45.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-11",
    45.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-14",
    43.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-17",
    43.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-20",
    43.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-23",
    43.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-26",
    43.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-29",
    43.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-11-01",
    43.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-11-04",
    43.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-11-05",
    43.6
   ]
  ]
 },
 "polls": [
  {
   "pollster": "The Bulwark",
   "sponsor": "Pablo Torre Finds Out/YouGov",
   "dates": "Oct 10\u201314, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-10-14",
   "sample": "1,417 A",
   "grade": "B+",
   "weight": 37.6,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 36.0,
    "Gavin Newsom": 41.0
   },
   "margin": -5.0,
   "margin_label": "Newsom +5.0",
   "source_url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/The_Bulwark_x_Pablo_Torre_Finds_Out_poll_results.pdf",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "UMass Lowell",
   "sponsor": "YouGov",
   "dates": "Oct 2\u20134, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-10-04",
   "sample": "1,000 LV",
   "grade": "A-",
   "weight": 31.2,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 42.0,
    "Gavin Newsom": 46.0
   },
   "margin": -4.0,
   "margin_label": "Newsom +4.0",
   "source_url": "https://www.uml.edu/docs/2026-October-National-Topline_tcm18-423714.pdf",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "Emerson College",
   "sponsor": "",
   "dates": "Aug 16\u201317, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-08-17",
   "sample": "1,000 LV",
   "grade": "A-",
   "weight": 14.9,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 44.0,
    "Gavin Newsom": 49.0
   },
   "margin": -5.0,
   "margin_label": "Newsom +5.0",
   "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2026-national-poll/",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "Zogby Analytics",
   "sponsor": "",
   "dates": "Jul 1\u20134, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-07-04",
   "sample": "1,003 LV",
   "grade": "B-",
   "weight": 5.9,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 45.0,
    "Gavin Newsom": 38.0
   },
   "margin": 7.0,
   "margin_label": "Vance +7.0",
   "source_url": "https://zogbyanalytics.com/images/ZA070626/Crosstabs%20Zogby%20Likely%20Voters%20070626.pdf",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "The Tarrance Group",
   "sponsor": "",
   "dates": "Jun 20\u201324, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-06-24",
   "sample": "550 LV",
   "grade": "B+",
   "weight": 4.3,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 47.0,
    "Gavin Newsom": 43.0
   },
   "margin": 4.0,
   "margin_label": "Vance +4.0",
   "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019f-4a68-d458-abff-ee7d65f60000",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "Overton Insights",
   "sponsor": "",
   "dates": "May 16\u201320, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-05-20",
   "sample": "1,377",
   "grade": "\u2014",
   "weight": 2.9,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 39.0,
    "Gavin Newsom": 44.0
   },
   "margin": -5.0,
   "margin_label": "Newsom +5.0",
   "source_url": "https://overtoninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Key-Toplines-May-2026-Overton-Insights-Poll.pdf",
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}