{
 "race_id": "pres-2028-vance-ocasio-cortez",
 "title": "2028 Presidential Election Polls: Vance vs. Ocasio-Cortez",
 "as_of": "2026-11-05",
 "method": "https://electionsusa.org/methodology/",
 "average": {
  "JD Vance": 41.6,
  "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez": 42.1
 },
 "margin": -0.5,
 "n_polls_weighted": 7,
 "n_polls_total": 10,
 "trend": {
  "JD Vance": [
   [
    "2025-10-01",
    44.4
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-04",
    44.4
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-07",
    44.4
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-10",
    44.4
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-13",
    44.4
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-16",
    44.4
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-19",
    44.4
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-22",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-25",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-28",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-31",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-03",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-06",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-09",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-12",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-15",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-18",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-21",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-24",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-27",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-30",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-03",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-06",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-09",
    36.6
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-12",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-15",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-18",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-21",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-24",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-27",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-30",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-02",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-05",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-08",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-11",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-14",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-17",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-20",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-23",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-26",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-29",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-01",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-04",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-07",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-10",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-13",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-16",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-19",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-22",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-25",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-28",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-03",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-06",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-09",
    44.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-12",
    41.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-15",
    41.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-18",
    41.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-21",
    41.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-24",
    41.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-27",
    41.2
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-30",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-02",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-05",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-08",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-11",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-14",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-17",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-20",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-23",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-26",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-29",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-02",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-05",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-08",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-11",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-14",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-17",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-20",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-23",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-26",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-29",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-01",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-04",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-07",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-10",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-13",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-16",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-19",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-22",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-25",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-28",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-01",
    38.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-04",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-07",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-10",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-13",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-16",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-19",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-22",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-25",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-28",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-31",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-03",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-06",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-09",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-12",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-15",
    42.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-18",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-21",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-24",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-27",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-30",
    44.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-02",
    44.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-05",
    44.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-08",
    44.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-11",
    44.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-14",
    44.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-17",
    44.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-20",
    44.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-23",
    44.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-26",
    44.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-29",
    44.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-02",
    44.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-05",
    43.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-08",
    43.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-11",
    43.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-14",
    41.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-17",
    41.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-20",
    41.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-23",
    41.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-26",
    41.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-29",
    41.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-11-01",
    41.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-11-04",
    41.6
   ],
   [
    "2026-11-05",
    41.6
   ]
  ],
  "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez": [
   [
    "2025-10-01",
    41.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-04",
    41.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-07",
    41.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-10",
    41.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-13",
    41.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-16",
    41.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-19",
    41.0
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-22",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-25",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-28",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-10-31",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-03",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-06",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-09",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-12",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-15",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-18",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-21",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-24",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-27",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-30",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-03",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-06",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-09",
    35.7
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-12",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-15",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-18",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-21",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-24",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-27",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2025-12-30",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-02",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-05",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-08",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-11",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-14",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-17",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-20",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-23",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-26",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-01-29",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-01",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-04",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-07",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-10",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-13",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-16",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-19",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-22",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-25",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-02-28",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-03",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-06",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-09",
    44.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-12",
    43.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-15",
    43.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-18",
    43.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-21",
    43.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-24",
    43.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-27",
    43.5
   ],
   [
    "2026-03-30",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-02",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-05",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-08",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-11",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-14",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-17",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-20",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-23",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-26",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-04-29",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-02",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-05",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-08",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-11",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-14",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-17",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-20",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-23",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-26",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-05-29",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-01",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-04",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-07",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-10",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-13",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-16",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-19",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-22",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-25",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-06-28",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-01",
    37.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-04",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-07",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-10",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-13",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-16",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-19",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-22",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-25",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-28",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-07-31",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-03",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-06",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-09",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-12",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-15",
    37.9
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-18",
    41.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-21",
    41.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-24",
    41.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-27",
    41.7
   ],
   [
    "2026-08-30",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-02",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-05",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-08",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-11",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-14",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-17",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-20",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-23",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-26",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-29",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-02",
    41.8
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-05",
    43.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-08",
    43.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-11",
    43.3
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-14",
    42.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-17",
    42.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-20",
    42.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-23",
    42.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-26",
    42.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-10-29",
    42.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-11-01",
    42.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-11-04",
    42.1
   ],
   [
    "2026-11-05",
    42.1
   ]
  ]
 },
 "polls": [
  {
   "pollster": "The Bulwark",
   "sponsor": "Pablo Torre Finds Out/YouGov",
   "dates": "Oct 10\u201314, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-10-14",
   "sample": "1,417 A",
   "grade": "B+",
   "weight": 35.6,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 38.0,
    "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez": 40.0
   },
   "margin": -2.0,
   "margin_label": "Ocasio-Cortez +2.0",
   "source_url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/The_Bulwark_x_Pablo_Torre_Finds_Out_poll_results.pdf",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "UMass Lowell",
   "sponsor": "YouGov",
   "dates": "Oct 2\u20134, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-10-04",
   "sample": "1,000 LV",
   "grade": "A-",
   "weight": 29.5,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 42.0,
    "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez": 45.0
   },
   "margin": -3.0,
   "margin_label": "Ocasio-Cortez +3.0",
   "source_url": "https://www.uml.edu/docs/2026-October-National-Topline_tcm18-423714.pdf",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
   "sponsor": "",
   "dates": "Aug 26\u201328, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-08-28",
   "sample": "1,200 LV",
   "grade": "\u2014",
   "weight": 12.2,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 45.0,
    "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez": 42.0
   },
   "margin": 3.0,
   "margin_label": "Vance +3.0",
   "source_url": "https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/new-survey-democrats-hold-the-midterm-advantage",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "Emerson College",
   "sponsor": "",
   "dates": "Aug 16\u201317, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-08-17",
   "sample": "1,000 LV",
   "grade": "A-",
   "weight": 14.1,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 46.0,
    "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez": 44.0
   },
   "margin": 2.0,
   "margin_label": "Vance +2.0",
   "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2026-national-poll/",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "Zogby Analytics",
   "sponsor": "",
   "dates": "Jul 1\u20134, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-07-04",
   "sample": "1,003 LV",
   "grade": "B-",
   "weight": 5.6,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 45.0,
    "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez": 38.0
   },
   "margin": 7.0,
   "margin_label": "Vance +7.0",
   "source_url": "https://zogbyanalytics.com/images/ZA070626/Crosstabs%20Zogby%20Likely%20Voters%20070626.pdf",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "UMass Lowell",
   "sponsor": "",
   "dates": "Mar 26\u201330, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-03-30",
   "sample": "1,000 RV",
   "grade": "A-",
   "weight": 1.6,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 36.0,
    "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez": 33.0
   },
   "margin": 3.0,
   "margin_label": "Vance +3.0",
   "source_url": "https://www.uml.edu/docs/2026-Nat-Pol-March-Topline_tcm18-417813.pdf",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "Focaldata",
   "sponsor": "",
   "dates": "Mar 6\u201310, 2026",
   "end_date": "2026-03-10",
   "sample": "1,782 A",
   "grade": "\u2014",
   "weight": 0.9,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 40.0,
    "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez": 43.0
   },
   "margin": -3.0,
   "margin_label": "Ocasio-Cortez +3.0",
   "source_url": "https://www.focaldata.com/blog/democrats-increase-lead-and-rubio-stock-surges-amid-iran-war",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "The Argument",
   "sponsor": "Verasight",
   "dates": "Dec 5\u201311, 2025",
   "end_date": "2025-12-11",
   "sample": "1,521 RV",
   "grade": "\u2014",
   "weight": 0.2,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 49.0,
    "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez": 51.0
   },
   "margin": -2.0,
   "margin_label": "Ocasio-Cortez +2.0",
   "source_url": "https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/have-democrats-lost-their-education",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "YouGov",
   "sponsor": "",
   "dates": "Oct 16\u201320, 2025",
   "end_date": "2025-10-20",
   "sample": "1,000 A",
   "grade": "B+",
   "weight": 0.1,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 34.0,
    "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez": 34.0
   },
   "margin": 0.0,
   "margin_label": "Tie",
   "source_url": "https://www.uml.edu/news/press-releases/2025/national-poll-10292025.aspx",
   "notes": ""
  },
  {
   "pollster": "Emerson College",
   "sponsor": "",
   "dates": "Jul 21\u201322, 2025",
   "end_date": "2025-07-22",
   "sample": "1,400 RV",
   "grade": "A-",
   "weight": 0.0,
   "vals": {
    "JD Vance": 44.4,
    "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez": 41.0
   },
   "margin": 3.3999999999999986,
   "margin_label": "Vance +3.4",
   "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2025-national-poll/",
   "notes": ""
  }
 ]
}